I think as you said, it would depend on the situation.

As mentioned by even Marklbailey, he stated that he though Phillips would have been smart enough to run if knowing that he would be so badly outgunned and outnumbered. So while more Japanese ships would be around later, the British, with additional reinforcements early in 1942 of a couple more carriers, would be in a far stronger position to keep a powerful fleet in being in the Indian Ocean.

Other big issues.

How might Taranto go this time around? In the original version, despite a couple of smaller ships being sunk, the Italian battleships got off about the same as OTL. What to say that another scenario doesn't have one or two more of the battleships knocked out instead. The need for big guns in the Med or Atlantic goes way down.