Shane, the Wild Sow started only in 1943, no ?

Some elements about the BoF :
The Bf-110 are going to suffer a lot in the second part of the BoF (after the POD, starting around June 20th), since the Bf-109 are too short-legged to reach south of France until they can redeploy south (mid-July). The MS-406 will still have hard times against the Bf-110, but the H-75, MB-15x and D-520 are going to slaugther the Bf-110 and of course the LW bomber groups.
For the Bf-109, if the attrition of the last 3 weeks of the historical BoF is maintained, we would get only 310-330 available on July 10th (taking into account losses and accidents).

For the logistics, the Wehrmacht will be in trouble since most railways/bridges/fuel depots/marshalling yards in the southern half of France will be damaged/destroyed. The Germans army is heavily dependent on horses and this will hinder their efforts south.

Another thought : the French would probably want to spare their population, so there could be an agreement with the RAF to avoid targets inside/near cities and concentrate FC and BC efforts on LW airfields.