Russian Convoys

Gentlemen, I simply cannot see the British agreeing to Russian convoys to Murmansk in FFO.

Those convoys had a serious impact on the import program because they had to use their better, more modern merchant ships. Nothing else could stand the weather. The impact on the Home Fleet was also bad. You really had to have 2 modern BB to keep one in play, and EVERY convoy was a fleet operation, they required a distant heavy escort as well as a close escort.

The shoreside infrastructure in Murmansk was bad, and much had to be built to allow unloading, and even there vast amounts of supplies simply piled up at the railheads.

They did it because they thought that Russia would collapse if they did not. In this, there is no such chance. Russia is fighting hard, but it is not going to collapse.

Finally, the Aegean is open enough that convoys can be pushed through there using inferior ships not suitable for the north Atlantic - the Greek merchant fleet is perfect for this. OK, you get 6 knot and 8 knot convoys, but so what?

If the Russian cannot escort them with their Black Sea fleet from the Bosphorus mouth, that is their lookout. So they will use the Aegean for LL shipments, NOT the Barents Sea.

This makes the Black Sea a major focus of German interest, and it means that they will move heaven and Earth to crush the Black Sea Fleet.

Did I hear someone mention "how about the UB class submarines being sent in quantity down the Danube to places like Varna?" Hey, I think I did! Yes, being a 92 ton coastal boat, they could also be shipped by rail as modules to Varna for final assembly.

SO they Soviets would, in FFO have by northern spring 1943 a major and growing A/S problem in the Black Sea.

I also think we just found YET ANOTHER reason why the germans might not cut back aircraft production and where some of those 20,000 missing German acft have gone to.

This dynamic is now very different from OTL (the FFO change to BARBAROSSA is bigger deal than the Prince of Wales issue). We MUST be careful to limit Russian capabilities compared to OTL because they just are not going to get:
1. all of their truck requirements met by the USA
2. their high-octane fuel requirements met by 'free' refineries
3. A lot of very useful modern aircraft
4. A lot of very useful industrial semi-processed material
5. machine tools

THe impact of this is pretty serious. How much does Soviet tank production decline by? How much does their acft performance decline by? What about acft production?

How fast can their armies move without tens of thousands of US six-wheel drive trucks? They also DO NOT HAVE ULTRA. That and the lack of trucks ALONE make offensives like the Vistula-Oder offensive impossible.

Cheers: Mark