Russ,

You have very logical answers, but I'm afraid the team can't face the huge challenge you are pointing out. This is the reason why we have to strictly control the variables and limit the butterfly effect.

After all, considering the chain of defeats Italy suffers (failed campaign of France, Sardinia lost, Libya lost, East Africa lost, failed campaign of Greece, Rhodes & Dodecanese lost), Mussolini could have been fired in 1941 ! It has been decided he would stay in power, because it would be very difficult to manage this kind of event before Barbarossa.

About PH, why should the Pacific theater be untouched by previous events ? You have 1) an increased Taranto raid which cuts the head of the RM 2) increased italian reactions (maiale) against the British and the French 3) the importance of radar demonstrated (Aegean 1941) . This can make the USN staff think that PH's defences should be reinforced and/or considered much more seriously. French officiers going to Nouma probably made a stay in Oahu and gave some advice. The Japanese also could modify their plans.

Anyway, I will let Jacques answer your points (very interesting points) and this question of the PoW.