To answer...

Quote:
Russ, your list of points is valid, even if some could be discussed. For example : how can you be sure that Sovier Union will continue to sell things to Germany and allow transit between Germany and Japan until FFO-Barbarossa begins ? Stalin could close the door perhaps at the end of 1941, feeling strong enough at that moment (after all, Hitler won't attack before spring.)


First off the treaty between the USSR and Germany would dictate that they would continue to trade for at least 5 years. Secondly Russia, having cut themselves off from sources of machine tools and certain technologies because of the embargoes the Allies put on them for invading Finland and Poland, is making the USSR rather dependent on Germany for machinery. Unfortunately Germany does not have the refining skills to get them high Octane fuel. The fact that it was produced as a by product in the Synthetic fuel process was only known to Germany and Japan. There are more but those are a start...

As for feeling strong enough. Stalin wont feel that until all his first 9 motorized divisions are complete and the next 23 are started. The first 9 wont be done till at least August 1942. Also knowing that they only have about a 30 hour supply of fuel to run all there new aircraft and can only produce about 110000 tons a year ( 15 hours of constant running time for just over 10000 aircraft) will be in the back of his mind.

Quote:
Now, did you ask yourself why Jacques decided to keep Pearl Harbor strictly identical to OTL ?
He could have game it from scratch and we could have seen results ranging from "early detection of Kido Butai and US attack launched" to "same surprise as in OTL, but 3 US CVs were anchored in PH and are sunk".
I think it was necessary to maintain PH "as is" to keep the game under control.
Same thing for the German decision to attack Russia, for example.



Actually I would have been shocked if he didn't have Pearl harbour as Historical. Other than some access for technical and consultation purposes there was no driver or reason that the same situation would have not played itself out as historical as far as I'm concerned in that region. Also how the US ran its fleet and its politics towards Japan would also not have been influeced as far as I can see. Thus PH had to go ahead and the historical outcome should have been played out. Same as with the Phillipines initial attacks and Hong Kong. The change would be in the French Indo China and how it effected Japanese forces getting to Singapore and Borneo as far as I was concerned. I do have a slight issue with the better aircraft that the Allies had in the region compared to Historical but if you assume more money invested in Canada by France for example then many of them could have come from the commonwealth aviation training and construction programs. ( Yes, I have issues but I'm trying to come up with logical ideas that can answer my problems and wont radically change FFO ).
As for Germany attacking Russia. If you could look back I had many issues with that. Could not believe that Hitler would be so Stupid and said so on the Naval Fiction board. That being said I have adjusted my views based on further research I have done since then. Yes Hitler would have attacked at some point in time. Most likely when he assumed he had the best tactical chance. Whether it was logical or not is not the issue. Now the problems I do have are that nothing from the POD to May 22, 1942 can reduce the RLM and Heer enough to to not make him think that.
Points -
BoF - will cost more tanks, machinery , men and planes than historical but as it didn't go as quickly as historical the plans laid out in 1939 will be followed instead of adjusted or Cancelled. This means a lot larger army and airforce and Navy in 1941 then historical ( naval increase is marginal ).
That was BTW just for aircraft, 20000 aircraft to be built in 1940, 25000 in 1941, 30000 in 1942, 35000 in 1943 and 40000 in 1944. Now Goerings decree of having to stockpile 16000 lbs of aluminum for every aircraft being built ( when the average used was between 4000 and 8000 lbs ) was going to cut that back so that estimates of only 16000 for 1940 and 22000 to 24000 in 1941 have been made ( with capacity not being able to go much past 28000 in following years without changing the Goering policy ). As with just over 10000 aircraft made in 1940 gives you an idea of how much Milch cutback on production after June and the POD. That cutback on production caused a bubble in production that took a year to recover from. Also meant, due to led times, that single engine craft were the first to be effected and in fact there was less Me 109's made in Sept. 1940 then there was in June 1940 even when the RLM needed them more. Makes you think. Note: Its interesting to point out that the 1944 planned amount of aircraft and the 1944 actual production sparked many papers using that as why Speer's was not the economic hero of Germany. They say that the capacity built into the system in the fall of 1939 lead to the Projected number. They also use the fact that in 1939 it took 13 men to build a Ju-88 which in 1942 only took 3 in the same amount of time, as further proof of the production increase. What they fail to mention is that in 1944, 46% of the German aircraft capacity was wiped out by Allied Bombing. If it had not, the amount of aircraft expected to be produced was over 76000 aircraft. Something to think on.

BoB - In FFO, as I've stated elsewhere, I see a long drawn out battle that will have of the 4 phases that the Battle has been divided into the first 2 taking up most of the battle. The result will hurt both the RAF and RLM but I see the RAF being hurt more. This also give more of a need for the Greece campaign to try to draw off some of the RLM assets. The RAF component in that campaign will have to come mostly from pilots stationed in North Africa and the Commonwealth pilot training program...which btw I see France using as well to train her colonials. Increased production from Canada, financed by France and later after Sept. 1941 able to use the resources that they dont have to send to Russia can help here as well. Canada could also help improve production and provide more supplies to Australia and New Zealand as well in that case. No Short term payoff but come late 1942-43 will come in handy. Increased Aircraft production in the US will help here as well.
BTW some things to factor in that will help a bit to balance out numbers if FFO. Germany wanted to setup a training program that could in 3 months process and train 1200 to 1600 pilots and crews compared to the hodgepodge training setup they had which up till 1942 could barely handle 600/month. It would then be able to pump out 1600 pilots a month after setup. What does that entail? 4800 aircraft as a base with 200 to 400 aircraft per month to cover operational losses. That is 1600 basic trainers, 1600 advanced trainers, 1600 first or second line aircraft. This program also was to be tied into a mechanic training program. That is more aircraft then what was in the RLM at the begining of the BoF. Based on what was in the 5 Lufts and the plan setup it would have been fully functional by Feb 1941. It was to be the base for the construction of the Luftflotte Reich Deutschland.

The Greece campaign - One question I have is where did the Allies get 800000+ tons of dedicated shipping to support their troops in greece in 1941?

Japan before PH - Historically Japan was scrambling to get technical help in 1941. The number of cases they had German technicians removed from there ships by the RN in the Indian ocean is at least 10 times that I have counted so far ( that was over 400 technicians ). They were also trying to concluded licenses on Synthetic oil, engines, T6 aluminium alloy secrets for there T7. All this was hampered by how Japan had to get to Germany. In FFO they can hop on a train or plane and go from Japan, thru Russia to German holdings with no problems. This impact has to be all factored in and I think Mark has been trying to do that. Whether I'm helping or not is another question....

Japan after PH - A6M is not as amazing as it was historically in FFO. Japanese aircraft planning will have to be adjusted because of this. Development of A7M sooner. Constant consultations with German advisors, intelligence, more losses to aircraft than historical and the IJA in a weaker position than historical should be factored into FFO. In Japan historically the IJA had its own aircraft development and the IJN had there's. Equipment developed for one very rarely if ever was allowed to be used by the other till late 1944 when it was to late. The same thing happened with Ammunition and guns the aircraft the different services used. This just might be the driver for them to begin combining there production and equipment and sharing technologies between companies. It wont happen over night but some signs could be seen as early as late 1942. More to come on this...
Then there is PoW. It will have a huge impact on the war but its not the silver bullet that will allow the Axis to win. It is just going to make the war ,imho, more costly in some theatres. The Radar technology edge playing field will be leveled, no Magic or Ultra to lean on for the Allies, Less losses in shipping for Japan for 1943 and more losses to the Allies submarines in 1943. The RAF and USAAF in Europe is going to have there bomber fleets butchered in 1943.
Long term effects, RAF will develop really high altitude bombers and the USAAF will deploy B-29's to Europe. Submarines the Allies use in 1944 will be closer to what they used in the late 1940's then what they used during the war. Will help with losses and begin to cost Japan in tonnage sunk....the list goes on as far as I can see. That's the fun part! ;-)

Well I've blathered on enough.

ttyl

Russ / Roller007