ummm, oh boy....

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Honestly, I don't understand why the Germans and Japanese could make such changes in comparison to OTL (knowing the deficiencies of their political/industrial/military organization), but RN officers could not do something as simple as to *try* to destroy as many documents/materials as they can, when the ship appears to be doomed, that is at 8h30, until she sinks, 5 hours later ...


First off, any tech from 1942, who can read a schematic, could, after reading an RN technical manual, build the device in the manual and after a time get it to work with the right supplies and parts. Any other changes that have even been suggested have all followed , what is believed to be a logical timeline. Its not minutes , or hours or even days or weeks but months and for some maybe years.
Now after the attack on PoW at 8h45 she is making 12 kts and not sinking. When the attack occurs 5 hours later, there is no reason for the crew to believe that the same wont happen again. Instead she is hit with 8 torpedoes and sinks in 21 minutes. Yes there maybe some thought to destroying the code books but the Library would not even cross the crews mind. They are two different things as far as they are concerned. With how rapid the ship sank, even the code books most likely were not destroyed based on past sinkings of the same manner.

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You can't alter the story that much. The Japanese will seize almost nothing in Singapore, so we have to introduce something equivalent with the PoW for the balance. We can admit that they will be a little bit more successfull here, but we can't introduce a second POD. Definitively not.


Oh , I cannot believe you said that. That goes against everything I thought I knew about FFO. The project, that is FFO, as I believe it was to be run. Was to try to answer the question - What if France had not surrendered in June 1940 but had instead fought on? Using simulation and a team of researchers a logical set of scenarios was to be derived at by discussion and intelligent debate. If the result of a simulation was judged to be fair based on the criteria the judges fed it then it was accepted regardless of the out come. Thus it is possible to have accidents of war, which the PoW sinking is. Instead you say that the PoW is like a consolation prize for Japan not taking Singapore? That checks and balances are put in place to maintain balance? Sorry the only checks and balances put in place should be boundary conditions in a simulation so that for example 1 Me 109 can't shot down the entire RAF ( saw that happen in a monte carlo simulation where no one bothered to factor, fuel, ammunition or fatique into the equation ). If there is not a chance for the Allies to make a mistake then what are we doing here? Jacques should sit at his desk and roll some dice and say the Allies with Frances help will beat Germany and Japan by 1943 and 1944, what a great project, lets all go have a drink and celebrate.

As for your comment about a second POD, holy cow you don't know how, I can't say it, that sounds. After you create a POD, there is no second POD? The further you move away from the POD the more divergent the history can become. Yes the story will eventual converge back to the ALLIES winning the war *, but its the journey to that point we are trying to figure out. Will the war be shorter, longer, and will it be costlier? Those are the questions we are trying to find out. We already know that the world that FFO is in will not be the place that we live in. Various conversations I've read have already begun talking about that but even we do not know, yet. That brings up questiosn like , considering how much time De Gaulle has been flying around in FFO compared to OTL. The chances of him being in an airplane crash are becoming quite high. What if he was, what if he was injured, what if he died? You cannot have a POD within a POD as the story that created the first POD is already a work of fiction. The thing we must strive to do is make our ideas and choices as intelligently as we can and as said before, if something does not go our way, or the way we had hoped, we have to deal with it and move on. Not diminish it, or marginalize it. If we do that then how can you defend the work that is FFO?

BTW I firmly believe in the saying for every action their is an equal and opposite reaction.

In FFO just for example as I see it.
France stays in the war -
1)The UK gets fewer planes and equipment in the short term from the US
2) Harsher treatment of French citizens at home
3) More money and expansion in the US
4) More production from some key industries in the US many months later
5) BoB doesn't happen as soon and will be slower and more drawn out
6) Germany will have to maintain its production plans of Oct, 1939 as well as its training ones.
7) North Africa is built up way more than historical.
8) Italy suffers from French reprisals as its the closest Axis power to attack.

To move further ahead in FFO
10) You've given germany 11 extra months to build up her logistics, build truck, trains etc. compared to oTL with no Barbarosa till 1942.
11) No industries in France to speak of leads to conversion to a resource agrarian society with surplus workers taken to Germany to work, similar to Poland.
12) You've given Japan 11 months of uninterrupted access to Germany compared to OTL, through Russia.
13) With the bulk of German Synthetic plants coming online in Late 1941 and germany still buying oil from Russia till May 1942 and Germany not having to worry about shipping oil over to North Africa, you have actually given germany a surplus of oil in FFO.
14) It is said that Japan awoke the sleeping Dragon that was the US but in FFO, France has been slipping the US pep pills for 18 months. Leds to more production faster but military buildup will still be as historical.
15) France still in War but with Russia not in till May 1942, Lend lease will be a lot different in FFO, especially as most factories in the US will already be using resources that historically will have gone to USSR. Also means USSR's production will not be as high as historical until fed with more raw materials. Issues with Avaition gas will also restrict USSR's airforce until a constant supply can be arranged.
16) PoW - TBA???

there are many more...which is the fun of trying to work on FFO as I see it.

* - Just so you know, I firmly belive that if you kick a country like the US, which has by 1944 almost 50% of the worlds GNP, that you are going to lose. It just begs the question by how much and how long?

Later.

Russ / Roller007