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Probably, but in limited quantities (and they are also needed in Greece for Rommel). The PzD have already suffered a lot in Russia and will take an even heavier blow in September.


Which is why in the story Rommel got some of the turrets. Not a lot. But enough to build units around like he did historically in North Africa with Tigers. The story is Rommel taking advantage of Torch to launch an assault.

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And where are they coming from ? Probably not from France, since the Allied in GB are already becoming dangerous in the air. Not from not eastern front either.


Historically there are 2 squadrons training with the new torpedoes in the bay of Biscay at this time. The other could be borrowed on route to the eastern front. As for Dangerous in the air near Great Britain how? Britain has deployed far more aircraft than historical in FFO but she could not build any more than historical. She didn't have the capacity. Remember historically the RAF was barely doing better than 1:1 with the Luftwaffe in 1940 and 1941. She was just getting more of her pilots back. When she deployed to North Africa her operational losses were as high sometimes as the RLM's. In the Med. She's taking losses and sharing with the French but so to is the Italians with the Germans. As the Italians shouldered more of the burden in the region there airforce has suffered more than in OTL.

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After the heavy losses in 1940 (longer battle for France, battle of Britain against a more prepared RAF), hard fights over Corsica, Yougoslavia/Greece/Crete in 1941, almost continous fights over the Aegean in 1941/42, Greece again and Soviet Union in 1942, the Luftwaffe is more affected than you think. The problem is for the pilots, not the planes, BTW.


Let's look at that again.
Battle of France
Historical - 1130 aircraft lost by RLM, BEF ~400 aircraft, French ~1100 to 1500 depending on the source you use ( one source I think combines Belgium and Dutch losses as well ).

That is up to POD
Now in FFO
- The RAF has to keep supporting France, thus the RLM will have to deploy some forces to oppose this. This means a continuous war of attrition between the RAF and RLM over the lowlands and northern France. Advantage will be in RLM's favour with high Pilot recovery as most battles will either be at the channel or over occupied territory. This means no 2 month respite to RAF before battle of Britain.
- Her frontline aircraft and pilots decimated, the French airforce must follow the retreat of the army. By my estimates there are between 1400 and 1600 aircraft left in France made up of old obsolete models and new aircraft leaving the factories. These later would be shipped over to North Africa leaving a small core to fight the RLM. Based on my estimates.
RLM losses ~1400
RAF losses ~ 800
French ~ 900 (many obsolete aircraft left behind that were not destroyed on the ground)

Total RLM losses are ~2530 aircraft, replacement aircraft during period of Battle of France made ~ 4000, Pilot training capacity ~600/month ( 2400 ), Pilot/crew shot down recovery rate 30% ( on average 3 months to get back into battle ).

Its now September, RAF has not had a break but 2/3rds of RLM deployed in Southern France hasn't had either. Some deploy in Southern and Western France. Others move up to Northern France for Battle of Britain. RLM aircraft in Northern France continue harrasment raids over channel and British coast. RLM strength 3027 aircraft (only 1800 effective, many of the new pilots and crews wont be ready to deploy to the front for at least 1 or 2 months as historical ), down from 3157 historical.

Historical Battle of Britain
The RLM deployed historically ~2600 aircraft to the battle of Britain to face the 1963 RAF aircraft.

In FFO the RLM can only deploy 1800 aircraft vs the RAF's 1163 aircraft. Thus the Increased tempo of both the RAF and RLM over the last few months will most likely lead to harasment raids for the first 2 months of the Battle of Britain due to exhaustion, imho. Losses, approximately 300 per side for the 2 months. ( average historical loss rate for the RLM btw was 288 aircraft per month during the battle of Britain )

BTW France will begin to start receiving her orders for aircraft in bulk around now from the US. Also about 200 aircraft will be deployed by the RLM ( most likely from squadrons based in Southern france ) to help Italy attack Corsica.

The loss of pilots over France during Battle of France will be felt by RAF around now. RLM will get in the 2 months about 1200 replacement aircraft and pilots, reserve aircraft cover replacement of operational losses. RLM strength now 2700 aircraft deployed for Battle of Britain ( total strength 3327 ). RAF meanwhile only would get 1000 aircraft and pilots from there program. Raising her to 1863 aircraft.

If as I think would happen the planned pilot training program is not cancelled in FFO for the RLM, the schools will be coming online about now. Will be able to increase and improve pilot training from 600 / month to 1200 to 1500 /month over first year. First pilots and crews will not be coming out of program for 3 months. Also aircraft will now be coming off the lines in Germany at about 1200 per month now and increasing.

Historical losses for the Battle of Britain.
- RLM 1887 aircraft shot down from August 1940 to May 1941. A further 811 aircraft were operation casualties.
- RAF lost 1547 aircraft shot down and had ~700 operational casualties.

Now Barbarosa stopped the Battle of Britain historically, what in FFO will stop it?

This also begs the question of where will the RAF get the planes to deploy in March 1941 to deploy to Greece or help out in the Med. other than already deployed forces in Egypt ?
Unless the Battle of Britain remains on going till May 1942, there is no battle or series of battles in FFO that can attrit the RLM enough that I can see. If that were to happen then Britain would not be able to support other than with RN assets.

Remember even with the battle of Britain the RLM still Grew and was larger than it had been by the time Barbarosa occurred. The big damage was that over half of the RLM's experienced pilots had been lost by then and the new ones had been flying for less than 8 months. This also led to higher operational losses.

Points
- The RAF can only have aircraft built as fast as historical. Decreasing the number of bombers can increase the number of fighters but only by so much.
- If she's facing the RLM for the last half of 1940 she will not be in a position to do anything in the Med. till the last half of 1941.



Problems as I see it.
The amount of losses from the Battle of France, Battle of Britain, Corsica, Sardina, the Med., Yugoslavia, Greece and Aegean are not enough to Decrease the RLM to where you have them. In fact the Battle of France will probabaly make things worse as Building and Training programs will not be cancelled that were.

From POD historical
Battle of Britain
Yugoslavia
Greece
Crete
North Africa (some italian )
Malta ( italian )
Barbarosa June 22, 1941
( RLM actually Grew in size, not enough losses, pilot experience was down )

From POD FFO
Continuing Battle of France
Battle of Britain
Corsica ( Italian )
Sardina ( italian )
Yugoslavia
Greece
Aegean ( some italian )
Southern Italy and Sicily ( mostly Italian )
Barbarosa May 22, 1942
( So you take an extra 1400 aircraft off for the Battle of France. Logistics say you can't expect the RLM to lose any more aircraft than historical for BoB unless you prolong it which prevents the RAF from deploying abroad. Corsica and Sardina would I feel be covered by North African deployment so 200 aircraft, Yugolsavia and Greece will not be any more than historical and the Aegean and the Allies cannot handle in 1941 before the US shows up a loss rate of 1000 aircraft per month needed to keep the RLM's growth in check before Barbarosa, 11 months after historical. Also when you factor in that the USSR does not have the fuel to run her new fighters and aircraft until a steady supply can be had. Historically within 10 days of Barbarosa starting Dutch and American Ships began to arrive in Vladivostok with high Octane fuel. This continued until the fall when shipments also began to arrive at Archangel. Vladivostok was after the Japanese attack cut off from US and Dutch shipments but USSR ships by then had been also arriving with fuel and continued doing so throughout the war. In FFO Vladivostok is cut off. Shipments to other USSR ports will take longer to organize... Thus Aircraft losses on the Eastern front will not be enough for the first few months as well.

Again, I maybe missing something but I can't see what it is???

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No, because French and British orders were almost continous since 1938-39. In 1940, the fact that France fights on avoids the "air pocket" in the US production. France will first continue to receive P-40 and such and then switch to P-38/P-51 in the middle/end of 1941.


Yes , French and british orders were continuous since 1939 but France had only started to see some of those plane orders for example just as she fell. The Bulk will be arriving in trickles through the summer and then more come late fall 1940, mostly from Curtis. Full stream orders will only begin to be seen in Late Spring 1941 for planes and boats in September 1941. Also begs the question about Where China's P-40's will come from now???


That's all for now.
Talk to you later.

Russ / Roller007